A quote attributed to Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin goes: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” And indeed, on the week of Feb. 24, as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we saw decades unfolding before our eyes.
The world was aghast at the sight of hundreds of Russian tanks, supported by thousands of airborne and mechanized troops, going into Ukraine. The invasion started with a combination of air and ground assault, aiming to take control of a critical airport not far from the Ukraine-Russian border.
This event ended months of wild speculation and heated debates regarding the purpose of Moscow’s build-up of its forces proving Washington’s repeated warnings of an imminent Russian military operation was to be the largest conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
This development raises the risk of spillover and escalation given reports of Ukrainian military units seeking safe haven into territories of east European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. This creates a possible scenario in which a hot pursuit of fleeing Ukrainian units by Russian forces into NATO member states’ territories can draw the alliance directly into conflict with Russia.
The presence of Russian forces near NATO’s borders pushed the alliance to boost its political and military support to Ukraine as it defended itself against a full-scale invasion. NATO member states poured thousands of anti-tank weapons, hundreds of air-defense missiles and thousands of small arms and ammunition stocks to the Ukrainian army. Prior to the invasion, Ukraine also acquired critical weapon systems including Javelin missiles and anti-aircraft missiles from NATO member-states.
In another unprecedented development, the European Union funded Ukraine’s weapons acquisition as the world’s largest economic bloc announced new sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Unnerved by the continuing resistance of Ukrainian forces boosted by NATO and EU military assistance, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused leading NATO powers of making aggressive statements and imposing illegal financial sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. As the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held an emergency session to discuss Moscow’s invasion of Kyiv on Feb. 28, Russian nuclear deterrent forces went on high level alert.
THE NEED FOR
A GRAND STRATEGY
The developments triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, given their apparent magnitude, are generating shock waves across Europe and beyond.
This requires the Philippine government to formulate a new grand strategy that will mitigate the adverse effects of the strategic shock waves emanating across Europe and spilling over to the Indo-Pacific region.
Any serious and enlightened president must be guided by a grand strategy to prevent the country from being subjected to the malevolent actions of other states, and to minimize the possibility of being a victim of accidents, tragedies, and misfortunes.
It magnifies a president’s foresight and determination to effectively combine willingness and opportunities to achieve wide, and predetermined objectives through crafty decisions that minimize political and economic costs.
The National Security Strategy or NSS contains a country’s grand strategy for the coordinated use of all the instruments of national power — from diplomacy to military capability — to pursue the objectives that defend and advance the national interests. It consists of a set of ideas for using a nation’s resources to achieve its interests over the long run.
THE PHILIPPINES’
FIRST GRAND STRATEGY
A new president must begin with a grand strategy. The term grand signifies the large-scale nature of the strategic undertaking in terms of time (long-term, ideally measured in decades), stakes (the interests concerned are the large, important, and most enduring and vital ones), and comprehensiveness (the strategy provides a blueprint or guiding logic for nation’s policies across many areas).
A president chooses or designs his or her grand strategy based on a deep-seated belief on how the country should deal with the international challenges or opportunities it faces at a given point in history. National leaders should view grand strategy as a means to maintain and/or strengthen their hold on executive power.
In 2018, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte signed the first NSS since the Philippines became an independent republic in 1946. The NSS paints a realist picture of the country’s external environment. Though unconfronted by any direct threat of foreign aggression since the end of the Second World War, it warns that the current regional security environment has become increasingly uncertain and dangerous for the country.
The 2018 NSS did not mention any specific country that threatens the Philippines. Instead, it raised three important issues concerning the Philippines’s external security environment such as the perils of traditional geopolitical threats, the need for the Philippines to develop a credible defense capability and strengthen its comprehensive strategic alliances or cooperation with its friends and security partners.
A comprehensive study I authored as part of the Stratbase ADR Institute’s thrust of forging a strategic agenda for the upcoming new government, entitled “A National Security Strategy (NSS) for the 17th Philippine President: The Case for A Limited Balancing Strategy,” highlights the importance of converting the current administration’s defense and security stance into a “well-thought, comprehensive, and formal national security strategy” that can guide the Philippines in the next six years and beyond.
We are two months away from elections. Our next president must draft a new Philippine grand strategy that will take into account the strategic shock waves generated by the escalating conflict in Europe, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the possibility that these conflicts might actually spread into the Indo-Pacific region.
Dr. Renato Cruz De Castro is a trustee and convenor of the National Security and East Asian Affairs Program, Stratbase ADR Institute.